I will attempt to put the pie charts into perspective over the course of these next 9 days and then compare the results with November 4th's actual outcome. Think of it as the Ohbamah Projection.
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Jan 25, 2010
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Amee'z Flowah Kollecshun
Amee'z Flowah Kollecshun iz a kollecshun ov Amee'z flowah picchas frum 2005 tah da present. Amee uzed key wurds in da metadata saved wid each piccha tah organize dem into a kollecshun. Da entire kollecshun consists ov 491 picchas! Da 67 in da slide shoo r edited down tah da best picchas. |
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15 comments:
BTW, "Obama" is properly misspelled "Ohbamah." I've fixed this in both the subject and the body of the post. I always use the online translator or lookup facility when I'm not sure how to properly corrupt a word.
Anyway, there are two columns in the chart which are not clear to me. What does "Win Percentage for OBAMA" mean?" Same question for McCAIN.
Win percentage is: when Nate Silver runs his elaborate election model of projections made up of all the statistics and polls, either Obama "wins", or McCain "wins". According to his statistical model, Obama is winning about 95% of the time.
This is from 538's FAQ, "Fourthly, we simulate the election 10,000 times for each site update in order to provide a probabilistic assessment of electoral outcomes based on a historical analysis of polling data since 1952. The simulation further accounts for the fact that similar states are likely to move together, e.g. future polling movement in states like Michigan and Ohio, or North and South Carolina, is likely to be in the same direction."
He goes into a lot of detail to explain how he does everything in the FAQ, you may find it interesting. I haven't read the whole thing. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/03/frequently-asked-questions-last-revised.html
Ow aboot summ stats awn da haff marython?
Translation by http://primepuzzle.com/blog/jspeek.html
using a 1095 word dictionary.
Wel, coolrunning.com duz nutt yetz hav da results ov mye haff marython posted zo I'm going tah hav tah wing id. Theah wur aboot 500 runners in da 1/2 and aboot 700 runners in da 5K. Dais wuz da inaugural yeer ov da 1/2 and aboot da 7th yeer ov da 5K. Da 1/2 runz North tah Soud and Soud tah North awn alternate years. Id runz under 4 covered bridges. Aboot 3/4s ov id iz awn dirt roads. Id iz quide hilly wid at least 4 considerable hills, wun ov witch aroond mile 6 1/2 iz a killer; long, steep and fairly layt in da race. Theah may wel hav bin mowa women running dan men, a trend deez days according tah wun gal Ize spoke wid befoah da race. Wee wur fweezin at da start line zo id wuz gud tah getz going. Da fastest woman did id in 1:34. Ize can't recommember wat da fastest guy did id in. Da age range ov runners wuz frum aboot 13 tah aboot 69. Ize wuz definitely wun ov da oldest runners butz don't tink Ize wuz *the* oldest. Ize placed 2nd in da 60-69 bracket, aboot 4 minuets behind da guy dat beat mee (whom Ize met during da run and wid whom Ize talked a lot - he juz turned 60 and ran vewy wel). Mye tyme wuz 1:57 and chainj. Az Ize hav bin running low 1:40's, mye high 1:50 wuz a humbling surprise - butz theah iz consolation in da fact dat *all* 3 ov mye recent 1/2's wur eder downhill or flat. Da race fee wuz $30, low foah deez days - Vahmant duz id ryet. Ize knew both race directors, two ov da runners and aboot 4 ov da volunteers, wun ov whom wuz Leenda. How's dat foah stats?
Translation by http://primepuzzle.com/blog/jspeek.html
using a 1095 word dictionary.
Do you think you could provide a bit more detail there, TcT. (hee hee) All kidding aside, that was a great recap. You are running real good these days! Congrats on your purformins.
Wikud gud stats, tanc u. Zoundz lyke u had a gud run. Did u getz any picchas (or shud Ize za did Leenda)?
Ize shud teyell u da story ov mye frend Kate, hoo wuz mye college roommate. Zhe haz bin getting into running. Zhe fownd owd dat zhe haz a brayne tumor lazt munth. Id iz small, and benign, butz er surgery iz in December. In da meantime, zhe ran a 8k lazt weekend (er fuhst race) wid da goal ov finishing (witch zhe did). Zhe plans awn dewing a 5k zoon alzo. Zhe iz a pritty amyzing person.
Wow, Max is responding at the same time as me.
Translation by http://primepuzzle.com/blog/jspeek.html
using a 1095(O mye Gawd, almozt 1,100)word dictionary.
If / whin u zee / email / tawk tah Kate teyell er mye thawts r wid er and Ize wish er da vewy best in December.
Leenda wuz zo busy volunteering zhe onwy gotz a couple ov picchas at mye Vahmant Race, unfortunately.
Yeah, dishunary iz wel awn its way tah breaking into da MC's (da Roman
way tah za 1100's in case u missed id). Ize notissed Max slipped in a nu wun ('purformins') zo dat wiyill bring id upe tah 1096. Witch means wee need 4 mowa. Let's zee. Ow r wee going tah manage dat?
Hmmm. Ize gezz Ize kud tanc u foah yur incrudiblee clear explanashun ov Nate Silver's "Win Percentage" column. Ize tink Ize finally getz id. Zo ... there's basically a 5% chaunce McCain'll win. If you're familiah wid da so-called bell curve, normal disstrubewshun etc. etc. dais puts John in da lef or ryet 2 1/2% teenie weenie polka dot bickeenee sekshuns. Ize cayne liv wid dat.
Translation by Toby Speak Version 2.2m
The dishunary contains 1100 wurds.
Incrudiblee funnee comet by u TcT (juz befoah dais wun ). Alzo, Ize juz wan tah za dat Ize am rooting foah yur frend Kate, too. Zhe haz a lot ov courage and strength. Send er mye best too. Tanx alzo foah clearing upe da win percentage foah TcT (and even mee ),Tobee. O, by da way (speaking ov "O") Ize stand korrekted foah mye dropping da lazt "h" frum Barack's lazt nayme! AND Ize alzo wan tah poind owd dat Ize wiyill tri tah updayt da original screen shot ov da pies rather dan poast 8 mowa pie shots. Zound Gud?
Pleaze note da changes in cawllums 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6 foah 2day. Dais kud be dramatic!
Yipee yipee yipee, 8 mowa days tah goe! 96.4% for Ohbamah id da highest Ize hav ever seen id.
Translation by http://primepuzzle.com/blog/jspeek.html
using a 1095 word dictionary.
Just to keep the record straight, I was off by a factor of approx. 10 in my numbers for the people who ran the 1/2 marathon and the 5K. There were about 70 in each.
My ohbamageez for missing the projection data for yesterday. I have updated the composite spreadsheet from the Fivethirtyeight.com web site to include today's data. It still is looking pretty good for today. Just for the record, the stock market went UP 889.xx points yesterday. That was he second biggest gain in history. Let's hope for more of the same after 11/4/2008.
I love your word "ohbamageez" but it's too different from "apologies" to merit dishunaryhood. One of the undocumented (TS documented? get real) requirements is it should be basically readable. So ... thanks for the update but, sadly, TS word count will have to remain at MCV for now.
McCain seems to be gaining some ground in these last two days. Maybe this is a normal trend near the end of presidential campaigns where all the "undecided" (true republicans?) make it known who they REALLY want in the White House. Ohbamah still appears to have a strong electoral vote lead and a noticeable popular vote lead. But we will not fully know wins until the fat lady sings (hopefully ON election night).
Wow is right!
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